Playoff Scenario – Northwest Region Division 5
by Steven Marcus

Key games to watch:

October 27
Patrick Henry at Pulaski County
Culpeper County at Brooke Point
E.C. Glass at Albemarle
Cave Spring at Halifax County

November 3
Pulaski County at Cave Spring
George Washington at Halifax County
William Fleming vs. Patrick Henry

The Northwest Region Division 5 playoff picture is still pretty wide open. By my calculations, no team has mathematically clinched a playoff berth, yet. Either Pulaski County or Patrick Henry should clinch a playoff berth with a win this Friday, and Culpeper would also clinch a berth with a win over Brooke Point.  Here are most of the scenarios that I could come up with.

Commonwealth District
If Culpeper wins out (Brooke Point, 10/27; Fauquier, 11/3), they will be the #1 seed. If Culpeper loses to Brooke Point, Brooke Point could win the district outright (with a win over Colonial Forge, 11/3) and claim the Commonwealth District’s automatic bid (to the Division 6 playoffs). Culpeper would get in as a wildcard in Division 5 no lower than the # 3 seed.

Western District
First, the simple scenario: If GW-Danville wins the Western District (which they can do with a win over Halifax Co.), the Divison 5 playoffs will consist of Culpeper County, Cave Spring, Patrick Henry and Pulaski County. Here's where it gets complicated:  If Albemarle defeats E.C. Glass, and Halifax defeats GW, Albemarle will tie for the Western title, and get the automatic bid (either # 2 or # 3 seed) to the Division 5 playoffs with a higher VHSL rating than both Halifax and GW. This would knock one of the three RVD teams out of a playoff bid. In the wildest scenario in the Western district, if Albemarle loses to E.C. Glass, and Halifax defeats both Cave Spring and GW, Halifax would tie with GW for the Western title, and would probably get the automatic bid to the Division 5 playoffs with a higher VHSL rating.

Roanoke Valley District
If either Pulaski County or Patrick Henry win out to go 10-0, that team will be no lower than the # 2 seed (# 1 with a Brooke Point win over Culpeper). The loser of the Pulaski County-Patrick Henry matchup, would earn the # 3 seed by winning their final game, or the # 4 seed if Albemarle or Halifax wins the Western. If Pulaski County beats Patrick Henry, then loses to Cave Spring, there would be a three-way tie for the RVD title (assuming a PH victory over Fleming). In this situation, it would come down to VHSL ratings, and at this point it is too close to call (so close that it could come down to a coin flip to decide seeding).

Here is what I think the Northwest Region Division 5 playoffs will look like:

# 4 Cave Spring at # 1 Culpeper County
# 3 Patrick Henry at # 2 Pulaski County